G4 1340 · FSD → SFB

departs 5:53 PM CT · arrives 10:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD

↓ FSD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

FSD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

SFB (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1340 · FSD → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?