G4 1365 · SRQ → RFD

departs 8:31 AM ET · arrives 10:39 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at RFD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RFD?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at RFD that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SRQ that day

↓ 8am departures from SRQ are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SRQ (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.34 in

RFD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip1.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1365 · SRQ → RFD

Odds over time

How late will it get to RFD?