G4 1398 · AUS → TYS

departs 2:20 PM CT · arrives 5:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 2pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

TYS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1398 · AUS → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?