Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 1407
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
G4 1407 · VPS → SDF
departs 3:16 PM CT · arrives 6:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave VPS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at VPS
↑
3pm departures from VPS are often late
↓
VPS usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
VPS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.