G4 1590 · MSO → AZA

departs 6:12 PM MT · arrives 7:44 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at AZA more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AZA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ AZA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AZA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSO

Weather at each end

MSO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AZA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1590 · MSO → AZA

Odds over time

How late will it get to AZA?