G4 1840 · SFB → AVL

departs 4:03 PM ET · arrives 5:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AVL?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFB

↑ 4pm departures from SFB are often late

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at AVL that day

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AVL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1840 · SFB → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?