Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 1865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
G4 1865 · SFB → AVL
departs 8:58 PM ET · arrives 10:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at AVL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AVL?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from SFB are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at AVL that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFB (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AVL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.