G4 191 · ABE → SRQ

departs 6:11 AM ET · arrives 8:53 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SRQ?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SRQ that day

↑ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ABE

Weather at each end

ABE (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling8,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

SRQ (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 191 · ABE → SRQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to SRQ?