G4 2160 · PIE → GRR

departs 10:28 AM ET · arrives 1:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GRR?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at GRR that day

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PIE that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ GRR usually runs smoothly

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PIE (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.32 in

GRR (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.78 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2160 · PIE → GRR

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRR?