G4 2183 · GRR → PGD

departs 2:28 PM ET · arrives 5:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PGD?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PGD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at GRR that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ GRR usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.70 in

PGD (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2183 · GRR → PGD

Odds over time

How late will it get to PGD?