G4 2196 · GRR → SFB

departs 4:44 PM ET · arrives 7:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at GRR that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFB

↓ GRR usually runs smoothly

↓ GRR is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.70 in

SFB (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2196 · GRR → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?