Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2300 LANDED 7:41 PM CT, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Thursday, October 1

G4 2300 · IWA → MOT

took off 1:12 AM MSK · landed 7:41 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 28h after departure

Arrive at MOT more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IWA

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

IWA (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

MOT (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2300 · IWA → MOT

Odds over time