G4 232 · PIE → AVL

departs 1:56 PM ET · arrives 3:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AVL?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PIE that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from PIE are often late

↓ Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at AVL that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PIE (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7.64286 mi Precip0.41 in

AVL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 232 · PIE → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?