Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
G4 2511 · PGD → RFD
departs 7:40 AM ET · arrives 9:30 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at RFD more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RFD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave PGD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at RFD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RFD?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at RFD that day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PGD that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from PGD are usually not late
Weather at each end
PGD (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
RFD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.58 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.