G4 2523 · SBN → PGD

departs 6:40 PM ET · arrives 9:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PGD?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SBN that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ SBN usually runs smoothly

↓ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at PGD that day

Weather at each end

SBN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.40 in

PGD (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2523 · SBN → PGD

Odds over time

How late will it get to PGD?