Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2570
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
G4 2570 · PGD → SBN
departs 2:41 PM ET · arrives 5:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave PGD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PGD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SBN that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PGD (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
SBN (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4.2 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.