G4 2582 · MDW → PGD

departs 10:39 AM CT · arrives 2:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PGD?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PGD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

PGD (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2582 · MDW → PGD

Odds over time

How late will it get to PGD?