G4 2615 · LCK → PIE

departs 1:27 PM ET · arrives 3:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at PIE more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PIE?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PIE that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LCK

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LCK (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PIE (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2615 · LCK → PIE

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIE?