G4 2641 · TOL → PIE

departs 8:39 PM ET · arrives 11:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PIE more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts −18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PIE?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TOL

↑ Arrivals into PIE at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ TOL usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TOL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling5,300 ft Visibility8.4 mi Precip0.06 in

PIE (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2641 · TOL → PIE

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIE?