G4 2642 · PIE → TVC

departs 7:41 AM ET · arrives 10:50 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TVC?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at TVC that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PIE that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from PIE are usually not late

Weather at each end

PIE (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

TVC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2642 · PIE → TVC

Odds over time

How late will it get to TVC?