Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2653
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
G4 2653 · TOL → PIE
departs 10:26 AM ET · arrives 12:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PIE more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave TOL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PIE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIE?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PIE that day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
TOL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TOL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,300 ft Visibility 8.4 mi Precip 0.06 in
PIE (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.