G4 267 · EYW → AVL

departs 2:35 PM ET · arrives 4:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AVL?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
49%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at EYW that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into AVL at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at AVL that day

Weather at each end

EYW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip2.67 in

AVL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 267 · EYW → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?