G4 2698 · PIE → CID

departs 3:06 PM ET · arrives 5:06 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CID?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PIE that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CID that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ CID usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PIE (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

CID (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.82 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2698 · PIE → CID

Odds over time

How late will it get to CID?