G4 2712 · ELM → PIE

departs 11:02 AM ET · arrives 1:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at PIE more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PIE?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PIE that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ PIE is prone to delays

↓ ELM usually runs smoothly

↓ 11am departures from ELM are usually not late

Weather at each end

ELM (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.04 in

PIE (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2712 · ELM → PIE

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIE?