G4 2720 · PIE → SGF

departs 6:11 AM ET · arrives 7:46 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SGF?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at SGF that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PIE that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from PIE are usually not late

Weather at each end

PIE (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

SGF (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility5.8 mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2720 · PIE → SGF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SGF?