G4 2820 · SDF → SFB

departs 3:32 PM ET · arrives 5:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFB

↓ SDF usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFB (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2820 · SDF → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?