G4 2841 · OKC → SFB

departs 9:38 AM CT · arrives 1:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 3.3 in of rain forecast at OKC that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFB

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ OKC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

OKC (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.60 in

SFB (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2841 · OKC → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?