Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2842
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
G4 2842 · SFB → EYW
departs 12:06 PM ET · arrives 1:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
74%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 74% · changed +71 pts in 24h
+71 pts
74%
Yes 74%
No 26%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
18%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
74%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at EYW that day
↑
12pm departures from SFB are often late
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↓
EYW usually runs smoothly
↓
SFB is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
SFB (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EYW (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 2.67 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.