Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
G4 2851 · FWA → SFB
departs 9:51 AM ET · arrives 12:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave FWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at SFB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFB?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFB
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
FWA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
FWA (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 8.8 mi Precip 0.03 in
SFB (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.