G4 2948 · SFB → PSM

departs 2:05 PM ET · arrives 5:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at PSM more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PSM?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFB

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from SFB are often late

↓ PSM usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PSM (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2948 · SFB → PSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to PSM?