G4 2960 · EYW → SFB

departs 8:37 PM ET · arrives 10:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi, 3.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ EYW usually runs smoothly

↓ 8pm departures from EYW are usually not late

Weather at each end

EYW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip2.67 in

SFB (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2960 · EYW → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?