G4 3004 · RFD → SRQ

departs 11:11 AM CT · arrives 3:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SRQ?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.1 in of rain forecast at RFD that day

↑ 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SRQ that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ RFD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

RFD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.71 in

SRQ (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 3004 · RFD → SRQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to SRQ?