Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 3016
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
G4 3016 · SRQ → SDF
departs 6:35 PM ET · arrives 8:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SRQ
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.