G4 344 · RFD → BNA

departs 3:18 PM CT · arrives 4:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at RFD that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ RFD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

RFD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.47 in

BNA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 344 · RFD → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?