G4 398 · MYR → ELM

departs 4:05 PM ET · arrives 6:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ELM?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ ELM usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MYR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

ELM (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 398 · MYR → ELM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELM?