Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 433
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
G4 433 · DSM → PHL
departs 3:37 PM CT · arrives 6:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DSM that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
DSM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DSM (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.62 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.