G4 449 · PHL → DSM

departs 12:23 PM ET · arrives 2:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 449 · PHL → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?