G4 497 · FLL → RFD

departs 6:21 AM ET · arrives 8:34 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at RFD more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RFD?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at RFD that day

↑ 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from FLL are usually not late

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.14 in

RFD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.96 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 497 · FLL → RFD

Odds over time

How late will it get to RFD?