G4 545 · PGD → GRR

departs 6:06 PM ET · arrives 9:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GRR?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PGD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at GRR that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ GRR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PGD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.31 in

GRR (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.80 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 545 · PGD → GRR

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRR?