G4 555 · SFB → GRR

departs 8:04 PM ET · arrives 10:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GRR?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at GRR that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from SFB are often late

↓ GRR usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GRR (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 555 · SFB → GRR

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRR?