G4 559 · GRR → PIE

departs 7:01 AM ET · arrives 9:43 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PIE more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PIE?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PIE that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at GRR that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ GRR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.80 in

PIE (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 559 · GRR → PIE

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIE?