Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
G4 586 · IND → JAX
departs 8:00 AM ET · arrives 9:59 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into JAX at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.