G4 649 · FSD → AZA

departs 12:39 PM CT · arrives 1:40 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at AZA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AZA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AZA is prone to delays

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from FSD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AZA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD

Weather at each end

FSD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

AZA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 649 · FSD → AZA

Odds over time

How late will it get to AZA?