G4 676 · AZA → SBN

departs 6:21 AM MT · arrives 12:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SBN?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SBN that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from AZA are usually not late

Weather at each end

AZA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.70 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 676 · AZA → SBN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBN?