G4 702 · SBN → AZA

departs 1:28 PM ET · arrives 2:28 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at AZA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to AZA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SBN that day

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ AZA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AZA

↓ SBN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SBN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.65 in

AZA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 702 · SBN → AZA

Odds over time

How late will it get to AZA?