G4 881 · SDF → PGD

departs 9:04 AM ET · arrives 11:39 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PGD?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PGD that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PGD (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 881 · SDF → PGD

Odds over time

How late will it get to PGD?