G4 994 · PIE → ELM

departs 7:36 AM ET · arrives 10:31 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ELM?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PIE that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from PIE are usually not late

Weather at each end

PIE (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.32 in

ELM (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 994 · PIE → ELM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELM?