MQ 3362 · ORD → AVP

departs 1:59 PM CT · arrives 4:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at AVP more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AVP?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ AVP usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

AVP (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3362 · ORD → AVP

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVP?