MQ 3364 · DFW → BMI

departs 2:02 PM CT · arrives 4:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at BMI more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BMI?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at BMI that day

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ BMI usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.93 in

BMI (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,233 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.45 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3364 · DFW → BMI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BMI?