MQ 3401 · BOS → BUF

departs 2:41 PM ET · arrives 4:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

↑ Arrivals into BUF at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from BOS are often late

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3401 · BOS → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?